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Risk Scoring

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title: Risk Scoring category: Intelligence tags: risk, scoring, analytics, security, anomaly priority: Normal

Risk Scoring

IdentityCenter assigns a risk score to every identity in your environment. Risk scores quantify the security exposure associated with each account, enabling you to prioritize remediation, target access reviews, and automate policy enforcement based on data-driven risk assessment.

Risk Score Range

Risk scores are calculated on a 0 to 100 scale:

Score Range Risk Level Description Recommended Action
0 - 25 Low Normal access patterns, no significant risk indicators Standard monitoring
26 - 50 Medium Some elevated risk factors present Include in periodic reviews
51 - 75 High Significant risk indicators detected Prioritize for immediate review
76 - 100 Critical Severe risk exposure requiring urgent attention Investigate and remediate immediately

The Four Risk Dimensions

The RiskScoringEngine (in the RiskEngine project) computes a composite score from four independent risk dimensions. Each dimension evaluates a different aspect of an identity's security posture.

1. Access Risk

Access Risk measures the level of privilege and breadth of permissions an identity holds.

Factor Weight Description
Privileged Group Membership High Membership in Domain Admins, Enterprise Admins, Schema Admins, and other administrative groups
Total Group Count Medium The raw number of group memberships -- more groups means broader access
Admin Account Status High Whether the account has any administrative role or flag
Sensitive Permission Levels Medium Access to high-value resources (e.g., file shares, databases, applications)
Service Account Privileges Medium Elevated privileges on service accounts (SPNs, delegation)

Example: A user who is a member of Domain Admins with 142 group memberships scores significantly higher than a standard user with 8 group memberships.

2. Behavior Risk

Behavior Risk assesses how an identity's activity patterns compare to expected baselines.

Factor Weight Description
Login Patterns High Unusual login times, frequency, or locations
Anomalous Activity High Activity that deviates significantly from the user's historical baseline
Unusual Access Times Medium Authentication events outside the user's normal working hours
Login Frequency Changes Medium Sudden increase or decrease in login activity
Authentication Failures Low Repeated failed authentication attempts

Example: A user who typically logs in Monday-Friday 8AM-6PM but suddenly shows authentication at 3AM on a Saturday receives an elevated behavior risk score.

3. Compliance Risk

Compliance Risk evaluates an identity's standing against your organization's policies and audit requirements.

Factor Weight Description
Active Policy Violations High Current unresolved violations across all policies
Violation Severity High The severity level of open violations (Critical > High > Medium > Low)
Audit Findings Medium Unresolved findings from access reviews or compliance audits
Overdue Reviews Medium Access reviews that are past their SLA deadline
Violation History Low Historical pattern of past violations (recurrence)

Example: An account with 3 open Critical violations and 2 overdue access reviews scores higher than one with a single Medium violation that was resolved promptly.

4. Anomaly Risk

Anomaly Risk uses statistical analysis and peer group comparison to identify outliers.

Factor Weight Description
Peer Group Deviation High Access levels significantly different from peers in the same role/department
Behavioral Anomalies High Actions that deviate from the user's established behavioral patterns
Statistical Outliers Medium Metrics (group count, login frequency) that fall outside normal distribution
Access Accumulation Medium Gradual privilege creep over time without corresponding role changes

Example: A Marketing Manager with 45 group memberships when the average for Marketing Managers is 8 flags a high anomaly risk due to peer group deviation.

Composite Score Calculation

The RiskScoringEngine combines the four dimensions using a weighted formula:

Dimension Default Weight
Access Risk 30%
Behavior Risk 25%
Compliance Risk 25%
Anomaly Risk 20%

The composite score is calculated as:

Composite Score = (Access Risk x 0.30) + (Behavior Risk x 0.25)
               + (Compliance Risk x 0.25) + (Anomaly Risk x 0.20)

Administrators can adjust these weights in the Intelligence settings to reflect organizational priorities. For example, a heavily regulated environment might increase Compliance Risk weight to 35%.

The UserRiskScore Model

Risk scores are persisted in the UserRiskScore model, which tracks scores over time:

Field Description
IdentityId The identity this score belongs to
CompositeScore The overall 0-100 risk score
AccessRiskScore Access dimension sub-score
BehaviorRiskScore Behavior dimension sub-score
ComplianceRiskScore Compliance dimension sub-score
AnomalyRiskScore Anomaly dimension sub-score
CalculatedAt Timestamp of the most recent calculation
PreviousScore The prior composite score (for trend analysis)

Score history is retained, allowing you to visualize risk trends over time and identify whether an identity's risk is increasing, decreasing, or stable.

PeerGroupAnalyzer

The PeerGroupAnalyzer compares each identity's access patterns to their peers. Peers are determined by:

  • Department -- Users in the same department
  • Job Title -- Users with the same or similar job title
  • Manager -- Users reporting to the same manager
  • Location -- Users in the same office or site

The analyzer calculates a deviation score for each identity based on how much their access differs from the peer group median. Significant deviations (more than 1.5 standard deviations) are flagged as anomalies.

Peer Comparison Example

Identity: Jane Doe (Marketing Manager)
Peer Group: Marketing Managers (15 members)

                        Jane Doe    Peer Median    Deviation
Group Memberships:      45          8              +462%  [ANOMALY]
Application Access:     5           5              0%
Shared Drive Access:    12          6              +100%  [REVIEW]
Admin Rights:           0           0              0%

Recommendation: Review 37 excess group memberships

Using Risk Scores

In Access Reviews

Risk scores are displayed alongside each identity during access review campaigns. Reviewers can:

  • Sort review items by risk score (highest first)
  • Filter to show only High and Critical risk identities
  • Use risk context to make informed approve/revoke decisions

In Policy Enforcement

Create policies that trigger based on risk thresholds:

  • Require multi-factor authentication for identities with risk score >50
  • Auto-flag accounts with risk score >75 for immediate review
  • Restrict self-service operations for Critical-risk accounts

In the Directory Browser

When viewing objects in the Directory Browser, risk scores are displayed as color-coded badges:

  • Green (0-25): Low risk
  • Yellow (26-50): Medium risk
  • Orange (51-75): High risk
  • Red (76-100): Critical risk

In ChatHub

Use the /insights command to view risk scores and breakdowns:

/insights john.smith

Or ask in natural language:

What is the risk score for john.smith?
Show me all high-risk users
Who are the riskiest identities in my environment?

See ChatHub Slash Commands Reference for more query options.

In Workflow Triggers

Risk scores can trigger automated workflows:

  • Notify the security team when any identity crosses the Critical threshold
  • Initiate an access review when an identity's risk increases by more than 20 points
  • Disable accounts automatically when risk score reaches 95+ (with appropriate approval workflow)

Tuning Risk Scores

Adjusting Dimension Weights

Navigate to Intelligence Settings to modify the default weights for each risk dimension. Consider your organization's priorities:

Scenario Recommended Adjustment
Heavily regulated industry Increase Compliance Risk to 35%, reduce Behavior Risk to 20%
High-security environment Increase Access Risk to 35%, increase Anomaly Risk to 25%
Post-breach investigation Increase Behavior Risk to 35%

Reducing False Positives

If too many identities are flagged as High or Critical risk:

  1. Review the peer group definitions -- ensure departments and titles are accurate in your directory
  2. Adjust inactivity thresholds -- if your environment has seasonal users, extend the inactive period
  3. Exclude known service accounts from behavioral analysis
  4. Refine the anomaly detection sensitivity in Intelligence settings

Next Steps

Tags: risk scoring analytics security anomaly

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